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Time series analysis

The goals of time series analysis are to relate observed data to a model, and then draw conclusions about the biology from the model.  I do not really expect you to read all three of the required readings – probably could spend several weeks on all of them.  The Dennis et al gives basic methodology, the Bjornstad and Grenfell is the one I expect you to read very carefully, as it begins to answer some of the questions raised in the chaos lecture more carefully.  The Model Selection paper is brand new and very good, but again is very dense.  Good reference list.


In class I will go over the basic methodology and the conclusions.  


* means required reading

*Nonlinear Demographic Dynamics: Mathematical Models, Statistical Methods, and Biological Experiments.  Brian Dennis, Robert A. Desharnais, J. M. Cushing, R. F. Costantino   Ecological Monographs, Vol. 65, No. 3. (Aug., 1995), pp. 261-282.

*Noisy Clockwork: Time Series Analysis of Population Fluctuations in
 Animals.  Ottar N. Bjørnstad and Bryan T. Grenfell  Science 2001 July 27; 293: 638-643.

* ScienceDirect - Trends in Ecology & Evolution : Model selection in ecology and evolution