Chaos and nonlinearity
This is our first lecture that will emphasize the improtance of nonlinearity.
By nonlienarity we really mean non-linear per capita growth rates, and
the potential for complex dynamics. If population numbers are variable
through time, is it noise (external forces) or internal dynamics that is
driving the system. We'll begin by defining the question and giving
bakcground, then going through some of the basics of chaos and nonlinear
dyanmics. We'll draw some examples from the epidemiological literature.
Chaos in Ecology: Is Mother Nature a Strange Attractor? Alan Hastings,
Carole L. Hom, Stephen Ellner, Peter Turchin, H. Charles J. Godfray
Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, Vol. 24. (1993), pp. 1-33.
Ellner, SP; Bailey, BA; Bobashev, GV; Gallant, AR; Grenfell, BT; Nychka,
DW. Noise and nonlinearity in measles epidemics: Combining mechanistic
and statistical approaches to population modeling. AMERICAN
NATURALIST, MAY, 1998, V151(N5):425-440.